The Economics of Crime in The White Lotus
What is driving the criminal acts we see in The White Lotus?
Crime is often portrayed as impulsive or emotional, but economics tells us that even the most irrational-seeming acts are influenced by incentives, risks, and rewards. HBO’s The White Lotus gives us fascinating case studies in criminal decision-making, from theft and deception to schemes that escalate into life-or-death stakes. By applying economic theory to these moments, we can better understand why people commit crimes—and when they decide not to.
The Rational Criminal: Armond’s Theft & Drug Use
One of the first crimes we see in The White Lotus is Armond’s decision to take and use illicit drugs from a lost backpack. At first glance, this seems reckless—especially for a hotel manager responsible for running a luxury resort. But if we apply economic analysis, we can break his decision down into two key factors: expected benefits and expected costs.
According to economist Gary Becker, criminals weigh the probability of getting caught against the potential reward. In Armond’s case, the benefit is immediate—he gets drugs without having to pay for them. The costs, however, are uncertain. If no one discovers the theft, he faces zero consequences; if he is caught, he could be fired or even arrested. The tension here is that Armond underestimates the risks, as we later see when his choices spiral out of control.
Crime and Moral Barriers: Kai’s Robbery
Kai’s decision to rob the hotel safe is a much higher-stakes crime. Initially, he is reluctant—he’s not a career criminal, and he understands the moral and legal risks involved. However, Paula persuades him by reframing the situation: she tells him that the wealthy guests have stolen from people like him for generations, making the crime feel like a form of justice.
Beyond monetary risk, there are moral costs that play a significant role in criminal decision-making. Kai’s hesitation reflects this. He doesn’t see himself as a thief, which initially prevents him from committing the crime. However, when Paula shifts his perspective, he becomes willing to take the risk. His miscalculation, however, is in underestimating the probability of being caught—a classic mistake in criminal economics.
The Crime That Didn’t Happen: Jack’s Moral Dilemma
One of the most striking moments in The White Lotus is a crime that never happens. Jack, who has been assigned to eliminate Portia as part of a larger murder-for-money scheme, ultimately chooses not to go through with it. Why?
Again, we turn to economic incentives and moral decision-making. Jack stands to benefit financially from completing the task, but the moral cost of murder outweighs the monetary gain. He instead lets Portia go, demonstrating how criminal behavior is not just about rational calculation—it’s about personal identity, ethics, and how individuals perceive the severity of their actions.
Economics and Crime: Understanding the Trade-Offs
Throughout The White Lotus, we see characters make cost-benefit calculations in real-time—some misjudging risks, some underestimating consequences, and others ultimately choosing not to commit crimes. While we often think of criminals as acting purely out of greed or desperation, the reality is that all human behavior, including crime, is shaped by incentives.
What does this mean in the real world? It suggests that reducing crime isn’t just about punishment—it’s about shifting the incentives so that the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits.